Goldstein – Australia 2025

for that same reason labor will probably lose Wills to the Greens and the greens may resurge in places like Melbourne and Griffith. they wiill probably continue to make inroads in Fraser but thats probably at least a 2031 problem for labor. Labor was able to get swings to them everywhere else so the fact they have gone backwards in other seats means their is some underlying dissatisfaction. likewise other seats where they are probably in trouble against the coalition in seats where they managed to minute swings and/or labor got virtually no swing compared to rest of the country. for example Lisa Chesters got an almost 10% swing against her.

@john why would people vote for Tim Wilson after he lost the seat but not for Daniel? He seems to have run on the same platform in 2025 as he lost on in 2022

I don’t agree that there’s enough data to make confident claims about how teals “tend to do”. Teals as strictly defined have only existed since the 2022 election, and even broadening the definition to include e.g. Zali Steggall the “incumbent government” they were up against was always a Coalition one. If you cast the net wider to “Voices of” Independents, well Cathy McGowan unseated a Liberal MP in an election the Coalition took office from Labor, so hardly an illustration of frustration at an incumbent government.

My read on the teals, conversely, has always been that they target a small-l liberal constituency that has been a part of the Liberal Party since its formation but has increasingly felt (with some justification) to be sidelined within and by that party. There isn’t, directly, an inroad for that pitch against Labor incumbents but of course that doesn’t mean those types of voters don’t exist in those seats and those campaigns demonstrably have legs.

But more broadly I think it’s silly to project national swings three years out and then apply them to necessarily local campaigns. Goldstein in 2025 defied the national trend as you define it (although I also dispute this definition, because it involves conflating Labor with the Teals in a way that is not consistently applied elsewhere), Indi in 2013 did likewise. It’s better to view the teals as their own thing, if they are even viewed as a single movement, and not to attempt to predict their fortunes on the basis of presumed swings towards an essentially unrelated party three years hence.

@bazza and that should tell you something. except this time he didnt have scomo dragging him down. last time people were voting against the government

@john Dutton seems have dragged down more liberal MPs than scomo ever did

@John that’s why I don’t think Zoe Daniel will even bother running again unless there’s someone worse than Dutton who becomes leader.

There’s an interview with Tim Wilson on how he won it back and he said the two things for him were being ahead of the national campaign as it was likely it would drag the local campaign back, and that the leader (once again) would be less helpful than more helpful (Tim Wilson was apparently told that Dutton had written him off). In some regards, Dutton was another anchor like Scomo, some would say arguably even worse and that Tim Wilson’s achievement is even greater because of that.

Agree WL, Dutton was seen as a pseudo-Trump figure given his rhetoric on issues like WFH and referring to young, tertiary educated voters as ‘elites’. This played poorly in all the inner-city districts, and it is the credit of candidates like Tim Wilson, Amelia Hamer and Giselle Kapterian for running a more localised, personal campaign that enabled them to distinguish themselves from the national brand and minimise the swing against them.

@bazza that’s my point. Even despite that Wilson was reflected and hamer almost got Ryan. Imagine what would have happened if he didn’t drag them down

@john – you say that ScoMo and Dutton both dragged Tim down – yet he lost 1 and won 1

Yes. So obviously Zoe Daniel isn’t that good of an mp. I did say he was gonna win and all the haters kept saying he should move on. And he was gonna get thumped etc etc.
Let’s also assume that the donkey vote is worth 1% so she got that and still lost.

I’ve gone through the seats and based off that. Longman and if she retains it Bradfield were the only seats where the Donkey Vote has saved the winning party

Tim Wilson must not be that good of an MP if he got voted out in 2022

That was on the back of anti govt and anti Morrison campaign it wasn’t just tim Wilson who lost his seat in 2022. But he’s the only liberal towing a seat for the coalition. They weren’t voting against Tim Wilson personally but the liberals in general.

I sense that there was a swing from Zoe Daniel to Labor and not all of those voters preferenced her ahead of Tim Wilson. Maybe a lower percentage did so than in 2022. In 2022, 81.5% of Labor voters put Zoe Daniel ahead of Tim Wilson.

@WL, to Wilson’s credit, he branched away from the Labor vs Liberal schism and ran on his personal brand. He found his way away from the national spotlight which was on Albanese and Dutton. Dutton made a fuel stop in Caulfield with Wilson to spruik the fuel excise cut but that was probably the only time they were seen together this election campaign. I believe he also had a large volunteer army as did Amelia Hamer. You couldn’t really sense much of a Liberal campaign at all in either Wentworth, Warringah or Mackeller.

According to the abc website.zoe Daniel experienced a 0.5% swing Labor vote was stagnat and Wilson’s vote increased 4% in line with decline in others. So it appears his swing came from the others who preferences Daniel last time

Labor’s primary vote was steady but this includes the newly redistributed suburbs of Moorabbin and Bentleigh East. The Labor primary vote fell only because of a new entrant in the game. At nearly all the other booths, in the old and new Goldstein, there were swings to Labor.

wilson’s lead down to 258 on the partial recount

Tim will be shadow IR minister if he gets elected

lead here down to 244
I think based on this and the Bradfield recount a margin of under 20 might be enough to have reasonable doubt over the final result

The partial recount here has wrapped up with Tim Wilson now having a 175 vote lead with all the first preference votes counted and informal votes checked.

Tim Wilson will officially be the new member for Goldstein. Zoe Daniel has also conceded defeat, though has hinted she may run again in 2028.

that was quite a correction. Make me think that if the margin in any seat is less than say 50 there would be enough doubt that it would be a valid win

261 in to 175 means 43 votes swapped sides or there were a fair few Daniel piles of 50 that contained more than 50 or Daniel got a lotta informals turned around, or Daniel votes were in soeone else’s pile or a combination. Her QT ramble about not wanting her 17 y.o. son to be on a mission to Ukraine with the ADF hobbled her, though it sucked Dutton in too when Albo floated the prospect of Australian peacekeepers without U.S. guarantees.

The loser can of course appeal. What is the difference 150 odd in 110000 there could be mistakes made to the tune of 75 votes easily.

Mick
It has had a full distribution of preferences and a recount of most of the votes. If there are mistakes it would cast great doubt on the credibility of the AEC and that is not an issue. If it was Bradfield which is so close then the courts are the next port of call.

Has a defeated independent ever regained their seat? Daniel has hinted she’ll re-contest Goldstein next time around.

What I would like to know is if there is anything left of Zoe Daniel’s substsntial war chest and if she doesnt run again whete does it go? Same for Deb Leonard and Alex Dyson as well.

@bazza that’s why there are recounts of any result under 100.

@redistributed according to what I was told in the case of the independents it goes to the candidate what they choose to do after the election is their business. Whether or not they have a private arrangement with donors is there business.

@bumbalo not to my knowledge.

@james I can’t see why she would win. She defeated the libs in a year when teals came to power when the libs were going out of govt. an the libs had heaps of problems and then lost in a year when the libs did even worse In opposition. If the libs get their act together how could she possibly do better? Also what issues is she gonna run on?

Jacque Hawkins the candidate for bena bra used her $ to go overseas

Zoe Danielo shoulda been allowed to sink or swim and the $520 Grand shoulda gone to the candidate in Berowra, who most likely woulda won
Reason being voters there are sick of Leeser but won’t give Labor a turn, while Wilson always had a following in Goldstein, was just unlucky in 2022, imo.

@john she could always run on a platform of not being Tim Wilson

Libs hit 54% here on 2PP, higher than any other teal seat.

If the Liberal ditch net zero it will cost them this seat.

@ SpaceFish
i think Jewish voters will stick with Libs due to Foreign policy but there will be an Anti-Lib swing among other voters. IMHO if October 7th never happend then Zoe Daniels would have won maybe a slight swing away from her but still won.
So if Libs ditch net zero a Lib loss but maybe not as bad as 2022 result.

Spacefish Zoe Daniel would have to reconnect first

John, Zoe Daniel has said she plans to run.

Good luck. If she can’t beat the lnp in ab bad year with absolute chaos in play at party hq and Dutton running the show how will she win now. Especially signed Labor has just delivered the last remaining Jewish voters to the libs

@ John
I dont think Zoe Daniel will win back the Jewish community who make up 7.1% of the seat, she will seek to win the people who have no religion which is 42% of the electorate so basically affluent Anglo voters. The current Kooyong also has a Jewish community around Armadale/Kooyongi think those voters had a swing to Libs but the Chinese community is much bigger and they would fear Andrew Hastie.

The libs have to win back the Chinese community. They have to make it clear they oppose the oppression and hostility of the Chinese authoritarian govt not China and Chinese people in general. Most Chinese are hard-working and many are small business ow ers. The libs were able to beat xpzoe Daniel when the party went backwards in Victoria and Australia in general and almost took Kooyong. Zoe Daniel will be hard-pressed to win it back when the libs bring their a game theother thing is Trump won’t be on the ballot either.

@ John
Many on the right flank oppose winning the Teal seats back. Credlin, Panhai and Rowan Dean among them. They think it hinders the Liberals efforts to be more working class/socially conservative.

Yea but the teal seats are being occupied by inds who when gona unless a credible alternative can be found would likely drift back to the liberals.id expect the libs to win Curtin and kooyong back next election and give bradfield and mackellar a fair shake of the sauce bottle.

Kooyong depends on who the Liberals run, and if Jacinta Allan is returned next year.

I think kooyong will fall regardless. Monique Ryan is a weak mp and has baggage she only survived thanks to the poor federal campaign

This is the Coalition’s most marginal seat. Only Bradfield is more marginal. The teals got elected in 2022 largely on the back of climate change. If the Liberals abandon net zero, I expect Tim Wilson to protest. Abandoning the seat could cost them this seat.

It’s too early to tell if Ley or the leader at the next election would like to make a play for teal and teal-leaning seats or strategise winning back outer suburban Labor seats. I don’t think they’re mutually exclusive – the Liberals won Goldstein and almost won Bullwinkel. However, an issue like climate change would be more pivotal in a seat like Goldstein or Kooyong. If Dutton had dropped net zero before the election, I reckon Zoe Daniel would still be the local member.

@ Votante
I agree if Dutton had dropped net zero prior to the election, Goldstein would still be held and Bradfield will be even stronger for the Teal. I think Jewish voters in Teal areas would have still had a swing to the Liberals though due to foreign policy issues.
I have kept saying this many times already Bullwinkle and Pearce are bad examples for the Realignment strategy they are not Red Wall seats. If the pandemic had never occured (Bullwinkle would likely have been created as a notional Liberal seat). As you mentioned correctly in the Canning thread the swing in WA in 2022 was not sustainable which is why i expect in 2028, Bullwinkle to fall no matter if it is Sussan Ley, Andrew Hastie, Dan Tehan or Angus Taylor. Labor in essence needed a second landslide in WA to retain Bullwinkle i expected it to be the easiest gain of the night.
Even if the Liberals won all the Tealish seats (6 Teal seats, Ryan, Brisbane, Boothby, Sturt and Mayo) that is only 11 seats no where near enough to win government.
I dont think winning Teal seat or even a traditional marginal like Eden Monaro, Solomon or Macquarie are Mutually exclusive. However, winning Hunter and Kooyong maybe mutually exclusive or winning Wentworth and Calwell/Chifley it is hard to be the party of Meadow Heights and Dover Heights or Bellevue Hill and Rooty Hill. Winning a seat that is the polar opposite of your heartland requires a wedge issue.

@Nimalan, it is relatively easy to chart an 11-20 seat pickup for the Liberals in 2028. Still, after that, barring a major external event, scandal, or internal economic malady, it is hard to see where the Liberals pick up 33 seats. Some of that is just natural reversion to the mean. The problem is that the Liberals are fighting a two-front war. On one side, they are under attack from Teals and Labor in urban seats they are trying to regain.
On the other hand, they are attempting to break into Red Wall seats, where they must take positions that are incongruent with the first. I do not know how that gets resolved beyond hoping for a split within Labor when the day comes that Albo steps down. Also, you are dealing with time. Younger voters and newcomers are not friendly to the old ways.

@ Craig
Great analysis and i agree with you. I think WA is probably the state that will see the most natural reversion to the mean which is why Bullwinkle, Moore and Pearce are probably the 3 most likely losses for Labor. We also need to factor in Sophamore surges especially in a seat like Petrie which is a traditional bellwether and since 1983 only had two misses (1984/2022) so Labor holding Petrie in 2028 especially if Emma Comer turns out to be great MP ia not difficult to comprehend. When trying to break into the Red Wall you will need to take a position incomptable with your heartland so it can be a zero sum game. During the Menzies era the Libs used the DLP as a wedge to keep Labor out of government. However, eventually the wedge became redudant Labor accepted funding Catholic Schools, the Vietnam war ended and Nixon visited China. Labor party split during the First world war over Conscription mainly along sectarian lines but in peacetime that wedge was less relevant.

Seats like Deakin, Menzies, Aston, Hughes, Banks, Gilmore, Paterson, Robertson, Forde, Petrie, Bonner, Chisholm, Bass, Braddon, Lyons should also be added to that list of 11 as eminently winnable if the Libs get the policy and candidates settings right. That is without having to try and appeal to Rooty Hill and Bellevue Hill (I like that phrase – it sums it up!). After all, the LNP won a majority in 2019 – it has just gone to s**t since then. We could have been having same conversation – different sides after the 1977 election – but the cycle does turn. On the Rooty Hill and Bellevue Hill – Labor used that as a campaign wedge against Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 and it was really the beginning of the end for him as PM.